Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential candidacy has prompted a sea change among Knoxville Power Poll members during the past two months.

Power Poll members have switched course and now see Harris as the next president.

In July, shortly after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, only 23 percent of Power Poll respondents predicted a Biden victory over former President Donald Trump.

This month, after Biden dropped out and Harris took his place at the top of the Democratic ticket, Power Poll respondents flipped their prediction, with 61 percent saying Harris would prevail in November. Only 16 percent, a drop of 60 percentage points, forecast a Trump triumph.

Sixty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for Harris, up slightly from the 58 percent who would have voted for Biden. Support for Trump fell from 30 percent in July to 21 percent this month.

As we noted in our July report, the results underscore the unscientific nature of the Power Poll, which is a survey of civic, business, education and nonprofit leaders, not a poll of registered or likely voters.

Nationally, Harris has a slight lead — 2.8 percentage points — in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. But in Tennessee, Trump is the clear choice among voters.

A poll of Tennessee voters by ActiVote held during August, the only one released so far that includes Harris, shows Trump with a 26-point lead in the state, 63.1 percent to 36.9 percent. Decision Desk HQ and The Hill have given Trump a greater than 99 percent chance of victory in the Volunteer State.

For this month’s Power Poll, we surveyed 813 members and 335 responded, for a response rate of 41.21 percent.

In addition to the presidential preference and prediction questions, we asked other questions about voting in this year’s election.

Knox County Election Administrator Chris Davis has been imploring people to cast ballots during the two-week early voting period to avoid long lines on Election Day.

A large majority of Power Poll members — 79 percent — said they would follow that advice. Sixteen percent intend to vote at their precincts on Election Day, Nov. 5. Four percent said they would vote absentee by mail.

The early voting period is Oct. 16-31 at 12 locations throughout Knox County. (Readers can find the locations and hours, plus other voting-related information, at knoxvotes.org.)

With Trump’s baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election as a backdrop, we asked Power Poll members their confidence level in the integrity of the vote locally.

Among respondents, 87 percent said they were very confident and 12 percent said they were somewhat confident. Only one of the 335 respondents reported no confidence in the process locally.

Davis is taking steps to reassure the public remains confident in the conduct of the election in Knox County. For example, the Election Commission is holding a public test of voting machines at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 3, at the Downtown West early voting location. Davis said the two-hour test will essentially be a trial election, and that members of the public are welcome to attend.

Two-thirds of respondents said they get most of their election news from traditional media sources such as legacy newspapers/websites, TV networks and radio. Eleven percent said they got their election news from social media, and 10 percent from campaigns and political parties.

Voter registrations have been surging in Knox County and could reach 315,000, up from about 303,000 on Aug.1, by the time the registration deadline hits on Oct. 7. 

Tennessee, however, is the worst state in the union for voter turnout, and Power Poll members aren’t optimistic that will change. Forty-two percent of respondents estimated the turnout will fall between 20-30 percent of registered voters. A quarter of respondents said it would be 30-40 percent. Only 15 percent predicted a turnout of greater than 40 percent. 

Of course, turnout will matter more in battleground states than in Tennessee.

This month’s questions and responses:

Who are you voting for in the 2024 presidential election?

Kamala Harris: 64 percent

Donald Trump: 21 percent

Other: 7 percent

Don’t know: 8 percent

Who do you predict will be the winner of the 2024 presidential election?

Kamala Harris: 61 percent

Donald Trump: 16 percent

Other: 0 percent

Don’t know: 22 percent

How do you plan to vote in the Nov. 5 general election?

In person on Election Day: 16 percent

In person during the early voting period: 79 percent

Absentee ballot by mail: 4 percent

Unsure: 1 percent

Do not plan to vote: 0 percent

How confident are you that Knox County’s election will be fair and free of fraud?

Very confident: 87 percent

Somewhat confident: 12 percent

Not confident: 0 percent

Unsure: 1 percent

Where do you get most of your information about elections?

Traditional media: 66 percent

Candidates and political parties: : 10 percent

Voting advocacy groups: 3 percent

Social media: 11 percent

Election Commission website: 8 percent

Unsure: 2 percent

Turnout in Tennessee is the lowest in the nation. What do  you predict turnout will be in Knox County?

Less than 20 percent: 12 percent

20-30 percent: 42 percent

30-40 percent: 26 percent

More than 40 percent: 15 percent

Unsure: 6 percent