Knox County Democrats made gains in last week’s general election, leaving party leaders exuberant and their Republican counterparts concerned.

Turnout fell 25 percent between 2020 and 2024, primarily because Republican voters stayed away from the polls.

The Democrats’ success doesn’t appear to be the result of a big blue surge, however; instead, the tide of red voters has receded dramatically over the past four years.

An analysis of the turnout in 2020 and 2024, both overall and in key races, shows a dramatic decline in the number of GOP voters, while the number of Democratic voters has remained relatively stable.

A total of 56,768 people voted in this year’s election, according to preliminary figures from the Knox County Election Commission. In 2020, the last time the same seats were on the ballot, turnout was 75,606. That’s a 25 percent falloff. 

The steep decline came even though there were more competitive local races on the ballot this year. Eight of 13 county general election candidates were unopposed in 2020, compared to just one in 2024.

The difference was at the top of the Republican primary ballots. 

There was a competitive GOP U.S. Senate primary in 2020, which presented a close contest between Bill Hagerty and Manny Sethi (plus 14 others) and drove Republican turnout higher. This year’s ballot also had a GOP U.S. Senate primary race, but incumbent Sen. Marsha Blackburn faced only token opposition.

The difference in turnout for the Senate primaries in the two elections is key to understanding this year’s results. In 2020, 46,570 Republicans voted in the Senate contest, compared to 31,128 in 2024, a difference of 15,442. The overall turnout between the elections fell by 18,838, meaning that GOP non-voters accounted for about 82 percent of the falloff.

While there is no precise way to measure the partisan turnout for local general elections, the law director’s races in the two elections can serve as a benchmark — it was the only countywide office contested in both elections and it featured the same two candidates. 

In 2020, Republican David Buuck defeated Jackson Fenner, who ran as an independent that year, 63.1 percent to 36.9 percent. Buuck received 43,418 votes to Fenner’s 25,415. The margin was narrower this year, with Buuck winning reelection with 55.26 percent of the vote to 44.74 for Fenner, who ran as a Democrat.

But 13,349 fewer people voted in the law director’s race this year, with virtually the entire shift reducing Buuck’s total. Fenner gained nearly 8 percentage points, despite actually receiving 590 fewer votes than in 2020. Buuck’s total dropped to 30,659, a loss of 12,759 votes between elections. 

A similar analysis is difficult at the district level. School board races, for example, were nonpartisan in 2020, and all were settled in the primary when the winners received more than half the vote. And some seats featured unopposed candidates in 2020. Three County Commission races — in Districts 6, 8 and 9 — had unopposed Republican candidates, as did the property assessor’s race.

But overall turnout numbers in contested races were down across the board, regardless of the winners’ party affiliations. In Commission Districts 1 and 2, both won by Democrats in 2020 and 2024, turnout fell by a combined 3,866 votes. In the 5th Commission District, a GOP stronghold, turnout dropped by 3,626 votes, from 10,920 to 7,294.

This year, Democrats flipped the District 4 Commission seat and nearly took the District 9 Commission seat. Democrats also won two school board seats, in Districts 2 and 3, that had been held by independents. We took a closer look at those contests.

4th Commission District

The Democrats’ most significant win came in the 4th Commission District, where Shane Jackson narrowly defeated Republican Garrett Holt, 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent.

But the election results show the Democrats didn’t seize the district; the GOP gave it away.

Precincts in the district — which runs from Sequoyah Hills to Northshore Town Center and includes Bearden, Rocky Hill, Bluegrass, Tooles Bend, Lyons Bend and a portion of West Hills — have been trending blue in recent elections. 

Democrat Katherine Bike won the district’s school board seat in 2022, and Democrats targeted the Commission seat as a possible flip this year.

In 2020, Republican Kyle Ward bested Democrat Todd Frommeyer, 53.8 percent to 46.2 percent, a slimmer margin than in other competitive races won by GOP candidates.

Ward opted not to run for reelection in 2024, throwing the seat up for grabs. Holt raised more money than Jackson, but the Democrat won at the polls — 5,399 to 5,229 — despite receiving just 218 votes more than Frommeyer did four years ago.

Overall turnout dropped, from 11,215 to 10,628, and Holt received 805 fewer votes in 2024 than Ward amassed in 2020. Jackson’s winning margin was 170 votes.

Jackson carried the six precincts that are all or mostly inside the Knoxville city limits — Sequoyah Hills, West Hills, Bearden, Pond Gap and West Town Mall area. Holt took the five precincts in unincorporated West Knox County.

The Republicans had enough voters at the district’s polling places to win, but too few of them voted in the Commission race. Buuck got 5,513 votes in the district, 284 more than Holt. If all of his supporters had voted for Holt, the GOP would have retained the seat. 

The Democrats’ victory in the 4th District won’t significantly change the balance of power on County Commission, as the GOP will enjoy an 8-3 majority on the 11-member panel.

9th Commission District

Democrats narrowly missed an opportunity to capture another Republican seat in South Knox County’s 9th District. With 49.77 percent of the vote, Republican Andy Fox edged out Democrat Matthew Park (46.54 percent). Independent Stacey Bryan Smith finished a distant third.

The last time the 9th District experienced a competitive race was in 2016, when Republican Carson Dailey received nearly 59 percent of the vote in vanquishing two opponents. (Dailey was unopposed in 2020.)

This year’s contest was much closer. 

The candidates offered voters a clear choice. Park is a progressive with support in the district’s city precincts, while Fox is a conservative culture warrior who campaigned on national issues as much as local topics. Had he won, Park would have been the first openly gay County Commissioner.

The district includes all of South Knox County, the University of Tennessee area, and a section of East Knox County north of the French Broad River. The sprawling district contains urban, suburban and rural areas.

As expected, Park dominated in the neighborhoods inside the city limits — Island Home, Old Sevier, Lindberg Forest, South Haven, Colonial Village and Vestal. He doubled Fox’s vote total in those areas, 1,861 to 923. Park also received all 19 votes cast on the UT campus.

But Fox came on strong in the six mostly rural precincts, winning New Hopewell School 492-200 and South-Doyle Middle School 845-348 on his way to a 221-vote victory.

3rd School Board District

Democrats also took the school board seat in the 3rd District, which has been filled by independent Daniel Watson, who decided not to run for reelection.

Democrat Patricia Fontenot-Ridley, a retired teacher, won with 52.5 percent of the vote against Republican Angie Goethert, a founder of the local Moms for Liberty chapter (though they have gone their separate ways). 

Like the 4th District, the 3rd, which has seen close contests in recent years, was an area of focus for Democrats. The 3rd District extends from Western Avenue to the Cedar Bluff area along the northwest city limits and includes both city and county precincts.

Democrats, who have performed well in recent elections, are well positioned to take control of the 3rd District. Fontenot-Ridley won in all seven precincts, and a majority of district voters voted for Democratic candidates.

In 2020, Watson defeated former Republican County Commissioner Tony Norman in the nonpartisan primary and was unopposed in the general election. He has generally voted with the school board’s two Democrats and the other independent in opposition to the five-member GOP majority.

Republican Gina Oster edged Stuart Hohl, who is now the Knox County Democratic Party chair, by just 87 votes in the 2022 Commission race.

In this year’s law director race, Fenner received more votes in the 3rd District than Buuck — 2,620 to 2,494. Unlike the 4th District Commission race, the contest would not have been affected by Buuck voters who didn’t opt for Goethert. 

Fontenot-Ridley’s margin was 258 votes; Buuck’s support in the district topped out at 2,504, only 59 more votes than Goethert’s total, so even greater GOP backing from Buuck supporters wouldn’t have mattered.

Because Watson most often voted with the Democrats, Fontenot-Ridley’s win won’t change the board’s power balance. But it does make the 3rd District a place to watch when its County Commission seat is on the ballot in 2026.

2nd School Board District

The 2nd District school board race solidified Democrats’ hold in North Knoxville. The Knox County Republican Party didn’t even field a candidate in this year’s race, and Democrat Anne Templeton defeated an independent incumbent and a third candidate.

Incumbent Jennifer Owen steadfastly held onto her independence when the school board switched to partisan seats, a decision that was at least one factor in the outcome of the election.

Owen won election in nonpartisan races in 2016 and 2020, and aligned with the school board’s two Democrats, but voters backed Templeton with 50.6 percent of the vote. Owen received 29.6 percent and conservative independent Pat Polis got 19.75 percent.

The 2nd District — which consists of most of North Knoxville, Fountain City, Inskip and a portion of Norwood — has become reliably Democratic during recent election cycles. Incumbent Democratic County Commissioner Courtney Durrett easily won reelection this year with 62 percent of the vote against two opponents.

In the school board contest, Templeton won every precinct in the district, though she did finish in a tie with Polis for first place in the low-turnout 33N precinct that runs along Interstate 640 east of Broadway.